Reference Class Forecasting
Chapter: Chapter 8 — Tools, Techniques & Practices
ACT/GTM: Extension
Command: /redteam outside-view
Summary
Section titled “Summary”Estimate from the distribution of outcomes in similar past cases.
When to use
Section titled “When to use”Probability and timeline estimates.
Method
Section titled “Method”Define class → gather base rate → adjust sparingly.
RedTeam notes
Section titled “RedTeam notes”Category: extension. RedTeam may extend or alias this technique.
Related
Section titled “Related”Lineage
Section titled “Lineage”Part of The Red Team Handbook, Version 10, maintained by Curate Labs — successor to the defunct UFMCS v9.0 work. See SOURCE.md and NOTICE.md.