Outside View / Reference Class Forecasting
Chapter: Chapter 8 — Tools, Techniques & Practices
ACT/GTM: ACT
Command: /redteam outside-view
Summary
Section titled “Summary”Base-rate thinking: what happened in the reference class of similar past attempts?
When to use
Section titled “When to use”Forecasts, timelines, budgets, “this time is different” claims.
Method
Section titled “Method”Name reference class → base rates → justified adjustments → compare to inside view.
RedTeam notes
Section titled “RedTeam notes”Handbook v10 command technique. See skill/reference/extensions-catalog.md.
Related
Section titled “Related”Lineage
Section titled “Lineage”Part of The Red Team Handbook, Version 10, maintained by Curate Labs — successor to the defunct UFMCS v9.0 work. See SOURCE.md and NOTICE.md.